Global groundfish supply is forecast to remain flat to slightly down, led by quota reductions in Alaska, the Barents Sea, and the North Pacific. Prices remain elevated across cod, haddock, and pollock, supported by strong EU and U.S. demand despite softening Chinese domestic consumption. Processing continues to consolidate in Asia, with China and Vietnam maintaining dominance in reprocessing even as rising costs and labor constraints pressure margins.

In the Barents Sea, Atlantic cod and haddock remain under biological pressure, with cod TACs down 11% year-on-year (−79,000 MT), marking one of the lowest quotas in a decade. Haddock, conversely, shows an 8% rebound (+22,000 MT) thanks to improved recruitment and stock assessments. In the North Pacific, Alaska pollock — the world’s largest whitefish fishery — is expected to dip 2.8% (−105,000 MT), while Pacific cod continues its gradual slide (−4.2%, −14,000 MT). Sablefish quotas remain stable, supported by improved recruitment, though long-term sustainability reviews are ongoing.



Trade dynamics remain defined by geopolitics. The upcoming U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) import ban on Russian-origin seafood, effective January 1, 2026, will prohibit U.S. imports of Russian fishery products, redirecting flows toward Europe and Asia. The existing 25% U.S. tariff on Russian seafood compounds these shifts, with potential adjustments dependent on U.S. and EU political developments. Concurrently, Red Sea disruptions and Cape of Good Hope rerouting have inflated reefer freight rates by 30–40%, particularly on Asia–Europe lanes.

Pricing across the whitefish complex remains historically high. Norwegian cod continues to trade above $9,000/MT, while Russian cod averages $8,600/MT CFR China. Haddock prices have reached record highs between $6,100–$7,100/MT, driven by substitution from cod and tight supply. Pollock remains the most cost-effective alternative, with raw material holding around $1,600–$1,650/MT. EU demand remains strong, anchored by long-term contracts, while North American buying is tempered by inflation and elevated foodservice costs.

Sustainability remains a defining market factor. MSC and ASC certifications continue to influence procurement decisions, with Norway leading certified cod and haddock volumes. Russia’s certification status remains uncertain under ongoing sanctions, while climate variability in the Barents and Bering Seas continues to challenge stock management and quota planning.



Meanwhile, farmed whitefish species are expanding modestly and partially offsetting wild-capture shortfalls. Tilapia output is projected to rise 3.3% (+242,000 MT), led by China and Indonesia, while pangasius production is up 2.2% (+96,000 MT) as Vietnam leads growth. Atlantic salmon production is expected to inch up 1.6% (+47,000 MT), maintaining its position as the dominant farmed whitefish substitute. Though still smaller in scale, barramundi and marine steelhead are showing early growth momentum across Asia and the Americas.

Our recommendation is that buyers prepare for continued tight supply through 2026, as both biological and regulatory limits constrain wild-capture output. Prices are expected to remain firm across all major species, while farmed fish will continue to absorb incremental demand in cost-sensitive markets. Trade flows are likely to split further between Western and Asian markets under ongoing sanctions and import bans, creating opportunities for North American and Nordic suppliers to reinforce their presence in premium markets such as Europe and Japan.

--- If you’re not already, be sure to subscribe to our 3-Minute Market Insight for seafood updates and insights delivered right to your inbox.