Hokkaido produces nearly all of Japan’s chum salmon, and at the time of reporting, landings stood at just about 8,700 metric tons, compared to 21,800 MT at the same time last year — a 60% decline year-over-year and 86% below Japan’s five-year average harvest of roughly 60,000 MT. Experts point to low returns and mass mortality events as the main drivers behind these record lows.

Japan primarily utilizes its chum salmon domestically, especially for Hokkaido roe used in premium ikura. The steep decline in Hokkaido’s harvest is expected to place significant pressure on Alaskan and Russian chum salmon supplies, particularly as one of these key producing nations is also tracking below its normal season.



Russia and Alaska are the next largest producers globally, averaging around 75,000 and 50,000 metric tonnes respectively. This year, Alaska’s harvest of over 19 million fish estimated at 58,000 MT, has come in above average, and over 90% of its forecast, while Russia’s catch is well below expectations at just under 60,000 MT, equating only about 60% of forecast, falling well below both its five-year and previous odd-year levels.

As a result, the global chum salmon harvest is currently estimated at around 130,000 MT, representing a 31% decline from the five-year average of 190,000 MT and 37% below the last odd-numbered year total.

In addition to supply shortfalls, market activity in Japan is intensifying. Industry sources indicate that Japanese buyers are purchasing Russian sockeye and chum salmon aggressively, focusing on premium-quality product, which in turn is contributing to upward pressure on global prices. This heightened demand, combined with limited availability, is reinforcing the bullish market sentiment across all major producing regions.

With Japan’s chum salmon fishery facing one of its worst seasons, domestic roe scarcity and stronger import prices are inevitable. Global suppliers - particularly from Alaska and Russia, should anticipate continued strong demand from Japanese buyers, though price sensitivity should remain high due to the weak yen.

Our recommendation is to secure and stock-up on your Chum Salmon requirements. Looking ahead, global chum salmon supply is expected to remain tight through 2026 to at least the start of next year’s summer salmon fisheries.



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