A blank sailing occurs when a shipping line cancels a scheduled departure, removing capacity from the market. For importers, this translates into fewer available sailings, tighter space for refrigerated containers, and a heightened risk of delays. The immediate result is greater volatility: rates can rebound as carriers pull back capacity, while shippers may find themselves scrambling to adjust schedules at short notice.

China’s National Day Golden Week runs October 1-7 and brings factory closures and reduced exports, giving carriers their last chance of the year to manage capacity and stabilize rates by canceling sailings, pushing surcharges before the holiday, and cautiously reintroducing capacity afterward.



Golden Week is always a disruptive period, however this year carries added weight. Carriers have so far resisted blanking capacity despite falling rates, and according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea, nearly 100,000 additional TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) of capacity are scheduled for October compared with September. This unusual expansion runs counter to the traditional Golden Week strategy and increases the likelihood that a sharper round of cancellations will soon be announced.

The implications for the market are clear: On the West Coast, blank sailings could floor rates and even drive them higher again in October. On the East Coast, diversions around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea continue to stretch schedules and keep reefer freight costs elevated. Across major seafood gateways including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Seattle/Tacoma, Vancouver, New York/New Jersey, and Savannah, refrigerated capacity will tighten further. Shipments most exposed include Chinese-processed cod, pollock, haddock, as well as warm-water shrimp, tilapia, and pangasius, all of which are critical to North American retail and foodservice supply chains.

At the same time, Golden Week factory closures in China will delay seafood processing and exports by two to three weeks. Buyers relying on Chinese secondary processing, whether for twice-frozen whitefish or labor-intensive shrimp production, should expect bottlenecks stretching into late October and November.



Our recommendation to industry is to plan ahead. Space for October and November shipments should be secured early, procurement schedules should be adjusted to account for longer lead times, and close attention must be paid to carrier announcements as blank sailings are confirmed. With volatility likely over the weeks ahead, early planning will be essential to maintaining stable supply and controlling costs as the market enters the final quarter of 2025.

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