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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 756 | AIRED 09/01/2025

Late-Summer Salmon Update: Global Salmon Supply Tightens as Pink Harvests Lag

September 1, 2025 - The summer salmon season has now shifted into its late-summer phase, with sockeye largely complete and the focus turning toward pink and coho.

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For Alaska, by late August, Alaska’s salmon harvest reached over 170 million fish, or over 80 percent of the seasonal projection. Sockeye landings are effectively complete at 51.9 million fish - 98 percent of forecast, with Bristol Bay alone delivering 40.9 million, up 31 percent from last year. Chinook is also finished, with just 119,000 fish landed.

The focus now shifts to pinks and coho. Alaska’s pink harvest stands at over 100 million fish, 28 percent below 2023 and well short of the 138 million projection. Weakness is concentrated in Prince William Sound (down 28 percent) and Southeast Alaska (down 61 percent), while Cook Inlet collapsed due to reduced hatchery releases two years earlier. In contrast, coho is outperforming, with over 1.4 million fish harvested so far - an 84 percent year-over-year increase, with peak landings expected into early September.

Alaska Russia Late-summer Salmon Update

Keta (chum) production has reached about 17 million fish, 80 percent of forecast. Prince William Sound is showing a remarkable 211 percent increase compared to last year, offsetting a 23 percent shortfall in Southeast. Chum is playing an important role in balancing the pink deficit, particularly for roe markets.

For Russia, the Far East fisheries have produced over 305,000 metric tonnes of salmon as of late August, a steep 44 percent drop compared to 2023. The decline is almost entirely driven by pink salmon. Landings of 221,000 MT of pinks are 53 percent below the previous odd-year, with Kamchatka - the largest producing region, running more than 50 percent behind 2023. While localized strength exists in western Kamchatka and the Kuril subzones, it is not enough to offset the broader shortfall.

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For other species, Russia’s coho harvest has reached over 4,700 MT, about 6 percent above last season, providing a modest boost to late-season supply. Chum production is also strong at over 35,000 MT, up 27 percent year-over-year, helping to stabilize roe markets and fill in where pink volumes are lacking.

Comparing both sides, Alaska and Russia are facing weak pink salmon harvests, creating a tight global supply and driving firm prices for canned, roe, and frozen H&G products into the fall. In contrast, coho is performing well—Alaska showing strong gains and Russia modestly ahead of last year—making it a bright spot in the market. Chum volumes from both regions are also up, providing balance, though not enough to offset the pink shortfall.

Alaska Russia Late-summer Salmon Update

For North American buyers, the outlook is clear: Our recommendation is that you secure pink supply early, lean into coho during its seasonal peak, and consider chum as a substitute in roe and frozen programs. Sockeye and chinook inventories are stable but limited, leaving coho and chum as the most dynamic factors shaping the remainder of the 2025 season.

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