Inflationary pressures persist, with Eurozone inflation at 2.5% in January 2025, driven by rising energy costs. Meanwhile, enhanced US duties on Chinese seafood are expected to redirect some supply to Europe, offering buyers new opportunities.

Groundfish supply remains tight, with Norway’s 20% cod quota cut increasing competition, while farmed cod exports surged by 62%, particularly to Spain. Prices on Norwegian wet-salted products and soles from the Netherlands remain high. In contrast, tuna prices are stable, but yellowfin prices are rising due to strong demand, and skipjack loins surged after the duty-free import quota ran out. Norwegian herring landings dropped 30% year-over-year, shifting demand to frozen fillets in Germany and Poland.



In cephalopods and crustaceans, squid prices have fallen due to weak catches in South Africa, while Morocco and Mauritania’s rising octopus quotas signal supply recovery. Shrimp demand is slow and Argentinian catches are below average, while European crab prices have risen by €2/kg (USD $1.00/lb) due to supply shortages. Lobster prices are dropping post-holiday peak. Mussels remain in high demand, but Italy’s Manila clam industry faces disruption from a blue crab invasion, prompting talks of Portuguese imports.

Meanwhile, Norwegian salmon exports surged 10% in volume and 13% in value, with US demand up 40%, and trout exports rose 58% year-over-year, with Ukraine, the US, and Thailand as major buyers. Seabass and seabream shortages led to higher prices for smaller fish, while larger seabass prices fell by 12% due to weak restaurant demand.

Despite challenges, the European seafood market still presents several opportunities for buyers. Farmed cod exports to Spain are expanding, offering new sourcing options, while demand for pelagic fish like herring and mackerel is rising, particularly in Germany and Poland. Additionally, the US market is driving growth in Norwegian salmon and trout exports, creating strong export potential. In the cephalopod sector, Morocco and Mauritania's higher octopus quotas indicate a more stable supply, which could help normalize prices.

However, challenges remain. Premium seafood prices, including sole, crab, and clipfish, remain high due to limited supply. Meanwhile, weak demand for squid and shrimp suggests potential price declines in these categories. Italy’s Manila clam production is severely disrupted by a blue crab invasion, creating uncertainty in availability and forcing buyers to consider alternative sourcing options.



With Lent approaching and seafood demand expected to rise, our recommendation is to strategically position high-demand species such as herring, mackerel, farmed cod and salmon while keeping a pulse on potential price corrections on squid and shrimp. Additionally, keep a pulse on Trump imposed tariffs on the EU by keeping tuned-in on our reports here.

Lent runs from March 5 to April 17 this year, during which observers avoid meat starting on Ash Wednesday and all Fridays.

If you would like more details on this report, please connect with your Tradex Foods Representative for further information.

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