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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 721 | AIRED 12/16/2024

Seafood Market Q1 2025: Trump, Tariffs, CNY Closures, Lent, Russia Supply Deficit, Pricing

December 16th, 2024 - As we enter the holiday season, this episode marks the last video for 2024 as we take a break for the Christmas holidays.

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The 3MMI will return January 6 with a brand new episode to start 2025. You can continue to stay updated through LinkedIn, Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, Threads, or via our email updates during the break.

As 2024 nears a close, seafood buyers should consider several dynamics when planning purchases and inventories for 2025, especially as Chinese New Year closures and Lent are approaching.

The incoming U.S. administration under Donald Trump has announced plans for universal tariffs, including an at least 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Recent trade data however shows China's exports appeared to have slowed compared with a year earlier despite predictions of a pre-tariff surge. While China is on track for a near-record $1 trillion trade surplus in 2024, the coming year may mark a turning point.

Seafood Q1 2025: Trump, Tariffs, CNY, Lent, Pricing

The U.S. ban on Russian seafood has created a 70,000 metric ton gap, valued at $450 million, in the domestic market. This loss primarily impacts supply of cod, salmon, pollock, and crab. Jeremy Woodrow, Executive Director of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, has emphasized the need for the U.S. and Alaska to fill this void, warning that competitors will seize the opportunity if they don’t.

For domestic supply, our pulse is that there are low inventory levels across all major seafood categories in the North American markets. This year’s Alaska salmon season saw one of the lowest harvest on record at just 100 million salmon harvested, Pacific Halibut also saw one of the worst seasons on record (as we just reported last week). And although Alaska’s Pacific Cod harvest remained fairly stable this year, the Atlantic Cod harvest out of Norway/Russia is about 100,000 metric tons behind the pace of last year.

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Our recommendation is that seafood buyers should prepare for the upcoming Lent season and Chinese New Year closures by stocking up product. Pricing is not looking like they will be going down in the next 6 months.

As Chinese New Year is on Jan 29, 2025, plant closures are likely to happen between January 20 to February 14 all while the upcoming Lent will run from March 5 to April 17, 2025.

Seafood Q1 2025: Trump, Tariffs, CNY, Lent, Pricing

From everyone at Tradex Foods, have a safe and healthy holiday season and a Happy New Year!

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