Other possible outcomes are to reach a new deal, blocking a no-deal, and there is even a legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether.

--- So how will Brexit affect the import of Seafood from China into the UK?

From the trade procedures angle, there should not be any significant change because import procedures for Chinese goods will not be affected by the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

The main change will be the removal of import duty on Chinese seafood.

If the imports are taxed according to the Temporary UK Tariff Schedule announced in April 2019.

Duties on most fish including Cod, Haddock and Salmon will be zero however it is worth keeping an eye on this temporary tariff schedule in case the tariffs are adjusted.

--- Another change has to do with pre-notifying the Border Inspection Post.

This will no longer be done through TRACES but via a new system called IPAFFS - Import of products, animals, food and feed system.

The advice from the UK government and Seafish is that you register now to use it if you haven’t already done so.

--- Now onto the second part of this episode.

Has Brexit affected imports of seafood from China over the years.

Comparing trade data for 2017 and 2018 we can see only a marginal difference in volume with 2017 at 51.3 million kg and 2018 at 47.9 million kg's of imported seafood from China.

Looking at provisional data from Janauary to July 2019 versus the same time in 2018 we are not seeing much difference in volume imported BUT there seems to a noticeable contrast in dollar values on imports.

As tariffs have not changed between 2018 and 2019 we don't believe tariffs is a factor.

However when reviewing the strength of the Pound sterling to USD we can see that the GBP has dropped from an average of 1.38 in January 2018 to 1.25 in July 2019.

Although we cannot predict the import volume for the remainder of 2019, something to note is that the temporary post-Brexit tariff is lower than the current tariff so this might discourage importers from overbuying.

However, it does not seem like the imports of seafood from China are slowing down as we know Chinese processors are actively trying to switch sales from the US to the EU including the UK.

How much seafood the EU can actually take on - we will investigate for another episode.

Lastly, we have provided links to the Temporary UK Tariff Schedule and the Import of products, animals, food and feed system below.

Subscribe to our 3-Minute Market Insight to keep tuned-in s we continue to follow and report on Brexit.

Since 2010, new episodes go live every Monday Morning at 5:00am Pacific Standard Time.

If you have a topic you'd like to hear on upcoming 3-Minute Market Insights, tweet us on Twitter @TradexFoods